Introduction

According to the United Nations’ World Population Prospects 2024:

1. The world’s population is expected to continue growing for another 50 or 60 years, reaching a peak of around 10.3 billion people in the mid-2080s, up from 8.2 billion in 2024. After peaking, it is projected to start declining, gradually falling to 10.2 billion people by the end of the century.

2. In 63 countries and areas, containing 28 per cent of the world’s population in 2024, the size of the population peaked before 2024. In 48 countries and areas, with 10 per cent of the world’s population in 2024, population size is projected to peak between 2025 and 2054. In the remaining 126 countries and areas, the population is likely to continue growing through 2054, potentially reaching a peak later in the century or beyond 2100.

What are these countries?

As long-term investors, demographics may play a crucial role in understanding the future success of a company. In fact, when analysing B2C companies, it is natural for us to check the exposures to these countries as there will likely be more and more customers in the coming years.  However, we do not invest blindly in these countries, as they often come with inherent risks. One key concern is that institutions, the rule of law, and accounting standards may be weaker compared to those in Europe or the U.S. As a result, careful scrutiny of financial statements is essential. Ideally, we seek Western companies with significant exposure to these markets. However, we occasionally consider local businesses, which is why we decided to analyze dLocal ($DLO).

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